Wednesday, Dec. 14 2011 11:39AM
Election 2012: So what if Romney is the only one?
By John Beaudoin, jbeaudoin@lsjournal.com
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ReprintThere is no greater testament to Newt Gingrich’s upswing than this: Mitt Romney is coming out swinging.
He did it Saturday night in a televised debate and will likely do it again Thursday (8 p.m. on Fox News from Sioux City, Iowa). And “it” is going to be – delicately at first and more aggressive as we go along – picking at Newt for a variety of issues, including his multiple marriages, statements he’s made in the past from immigration to minorities and anything else Romney can get his hands on. See, Romney is in political quandary.
If you believe the polls, Romney – probably due to his (perceived) middle-of-the-road stances on many issues – is the only Republican that can beat Barack Obama in 2012. However, he badly trails Gingrich in all the early races from Iowa to Florida.
And not only that, he stupidly challenged Rick Perry to a $10,000 bet regarding one of his stands on healthcare at the last debate at Drake University.
Romney is usually cautious – if not a bit presumptuous – during these debates. He plays it safe, doesn’t let his emotions get the best of him and leaves the bickering to the others. But he faltered badly Saturday night with his “bet” to Perry. And his poll numbers are going to reflect that this week.
In the latest compiling of poll numbers, Gingrich is 10 points ahead of Romney, both in the question of whom voters are supporting on the Republican side and in the key state of Iowa.
Romney still holds a double digit lead over Gingrich in New Hampshire, but that stands to reason given where he governed (Massachusetts).
When you head south to the next contests in South Carolina and Florida, similar polling plays out.
Gingrich is running the table with leads as much as 15 to 19 percent over Romney in both of those early primary states.
And it’s not even close with those in third place and beyond.
I think we are going to see a mass exodus of candidates following those four races, and maybe even before.
And while it is nice for Gingrich to have those cozy numbers now, everyone from CNN to Fox to Rasmussen has Obama beating Gingrich by 5 to 9 points while the same reports show Obama and Romney in a statistical dead heat – and CNN and Rasmussen show Romney ahead.
That fact alone continues to dog the Republican field and will eventually force a lot of people to make a difficult decision.
Do you go with the guy that could beat Obama or roll the dice with Newt?
John Beaudoin is the publisher of the Lee’s Summit Journal. To comment, call 816-282-7001 or e-mail jbeaudoin@lsjournal.com
