Tuesday, Dec. 20 2011 6:48PM

Its News to Me

Election 2012: Ron Paul’s Hail Mary in Iowa

By John Beaudoin, jbeaudoin@lsjournal.com

The Republican ebb and tide continues.

And this time, Ron Paul’s name gets thrown into the blender of hopefuls to fill the ticket against President Barack Obama in November of 2012.

In the last week, Paul has surged in Iowa and taken the polling lead over both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.

Public Policy Polling shows Paul at 23 percent in the Hawkeye State now, his strongest showing yet in polls leading up to the Jan. 3 caucus. Romney is still holding his own at 20 percent and Gingrich is weighing in at 14 percent – about half where he was a few weeks ago.

Since May, there have now been six polling leaders in Iowa, with the three aforementioned candidates, now-defunct Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, the later two who led the polls during short stretches in late summer and early fall.

Now, Paul is leader of the pack for the first-in-the-nation vote.

But it is still a long shot to think of him as the Republican nominee.

While he has as strong of a favorability rating as any candidate right now – and certainly higher than Gingrich – he is still polling second or third in the other early votes in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. Paul could win Iowa (as Mike Huckabee did in 2008) and not be able to gain much political ground with it. If he strings together a bunch of second-fourth place finishes as we march through the spring, all he really does is strengthen his case as a third party candidate. And I wouldn’t count that out.

Or, and I think this is less likely, Paul wins Iowa and is able to parlay that into a big January push. His already true-believer base grows, his grass-roots fundraising builds and he is able to seriously contend for the nomination. Some have been troubled by Paul’s foreign policy stances, including some recent comments about Iran at the last Iowa debate. In fact, I believe some voters that may embrace many of Paul’s ideas and platform may not ultimately support him because of his perceived soft stance on national defense.

Still, he’s gaining some ground and surely the attention of Gingrich and Romney.

There are just 13 days left until Iowa Republicans gather at the courthouses and town halls across its 99 counties.

If Paul continues to soar in the polls it may be a long spring for the Republican base.

John Beaudoin is the publisher of the Lee’s Summit Journal. To comment, call 816-282-7001 or e-mail jbeaudoin@lsjournal.com